Visit the Game Theory with Applications Web site for designing such an optimal mixed strategy. Even when or if people have time and information, they often do a poor job of understanding the probabilities of consequences.

Since emotions and rationality are not mutually exclusive, because in order to be practically rational, we need to have emotions. Since a security will be purchased only if it improves the risk-expected return characteristics of the market portfolio, the relevant measure of the risk of a security is the risk it adds to the market portfolio, and not its risk in isolation.

This outstanding paper discusses the idea of spreading one's stock exposure more evenly across their lifetime, which should then reduce the riskiness surrounding the ending wealth.

This Web site presents the decision analysis process both for public and private decision making under different decision criteria, type, and quality of available information.

It involves the study of cost behavior; determination, accumulation and allocation procedures. This paper confirms that short term bonds offer superior risk-adjusted returns to those offered by longer term bonds. To operate according to the canons of decision theory, we must compute the value of a certain outcome and its probabilities; hence, determining the consequences of our choices.

An excellent discussion of how to hedge against various types of inflation risk. With these two worksheets as a basis, we will use the Microsoft Excel Solver to model the complex Portfolio Optimization of more than 2 assets.

Diversification Pays Passive Asset Allocation: Charitable Giving Charitable Giving has several benefits. This excellent paper describes, theoretically, how bond yields respond to changes in the Federal Funds Target rate — and why.

Probability has a much longer history. This slide presentation summarizes Chapter 10 of the referenced book.

Tracking error is a way of ensuring that a portfolio stays within the same risk level as the benchmark index.

Merton, " On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: It compares the actual returns made by a portfolio manager with the returns he should have made, given both market performance during the period and the beta of the portfolio created by the manager.

And when the system's development follows a typical pattern we say the system has a behavior pattern. First, of course, it is good for the soul.

This paper suggests that asset allocation should be calculated on the basis of post-tax values of your portfolio. His works have a great impact on modern finance and have led to the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model by William Sharpe, Linter and Mossin.

Mixing bonds and stocks moderates portfolio risk; Portfolio risk rises disproportionately slowly as stocks are added to the portfolio; An all-bonds portfolio is not the lowest-risk portfolio; Portfolio returns rise disproportionately quickly as stocks are added to the portfolio; An often-overlooked risk for the long-run investor is the risk of having a too-conservative portfolio; By rebalancing once a year, you maintain a stable risk exposure; A balanced portfolio avoids market timing; Due to rebalancing, if an asset class becomes overvalued, you will be selling it as it rises; and, if an asset class becomes undervalued, you will be buying it as it falls; Rebalancing provides a discipline that helps investors overcome inertia; A fixed-weight strategy takes little time and it can save time at tax time.

The word statistics is not derived from any classical Greek or Latin roots, but from the Italian word for state.Modern portfolio theory (MPT), or mean-variance analysis, is a mathematical framework for assembling a portfolio of assets such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk.

It is a formalization and extension of diversification in investing, the idea that owning different kinds of financial assets is less risky than owning.

Abstract. The variation in a project's actual schedule, as compared to its planned schedule, is measured by its schedule variance (SV), which measures the difference between the earned value (EV) (the value of work actually performed) and the planned value (PV), so SV = EV – PV.

The first two ingredients are each a number: The time horizon — how many days do we look ahead? The probability level — how far in the tail are we looking?

Ingredient number 3 is a prediction distribution of profit and loss given the time horizon, an example is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: A.

CFA Level 1 - Portfolio Calculations. Learn the essentials behind portfolio calculations, including expected return and portfolio variance. Includes formulas for all major factors. You own a stock portfolio invested 30% in Intel, 20% in IBM, 10% in Gatewayand 40% in Microsoft. The betas for these four stocks are .6,and In a previous installment of this blog series, we focused on how to prioritize business drivers within Project Server in support of the portfolio analysis module.

We discussed why business drivers require thresholds in order to rate your proposed projects and how these drivers can be compared.

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